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<2fa43a2f-8a3d-4b19-ae52-1feb706cd28f@s18g2000vby.googlegroups.com> <6a9b6378-7845-4291-9c27-9536498f6bf6@b20g2000yqb.googlegroups.com> User-Agent: G2/1.0 X-HTTP-UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 5.1; rv:9.0.1) Gecko/20120105 Firefox/9.0.1 PaleMoon/9.0.1,gzip(gfe) Message-ID: Subject: [lojban] Re: Bayesian evidential? From: D To: lojban X-Original-Sender: datapacrat@gmail.com X-Original-Authentication-Results: ls.google.com; spf=pass (google.com: domain of datapacrat@gmail.com designates internal as permitted sender) smtp.mail=datapacrat@gmail.com; dkim=pass header.i=@gmail.com Reply-To: lojban@googlegroups.com Precedence: list Mailing-list: list lojban@googlegroups.com; contact lojban+owners@googlegroups.com List-ID: X-Google-Group-Id: 1004133512417 List-Post: , List-Help: , List-Archive: Sender: lojban@googlegroups.com List-Subscribe: , List-Unsubscribe: , Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-Spam-Score: -0.7 (/) X-Spam_score: -0.7 X-Spam_score_int: -6 X-Spam_bar: / On Jan 23, 11:50=A0am, Adam Lopresto wrote: > On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 10:27 AM, D wrote: > > the whole idea is to > > associate a numerical value with the sumti being tagged > > Hm... {bei'e} comes reasonably close to containing most of the sounds > > of "Bayes", and doesn't seem to be in use by any other experimental > > cmavo. > I'd suggest making it a MAI; the number goes in front of it, and the enti= re > thing is a free-modifier. That's so crazy that it just might work. And since the evidentials themselves are free-modifiers, it should be simple enough to pretend that {pabei'e} and its cousins, while built as MAIs, should be placed the way evidentials are (ie, at the start of an evidenced sentence, or after a specific evidenced word). It also allows for a few entertaining constructions, such as {ma'ubei'e} meaning "more than 50% confidence" or "preponderance of the evidence", and {xobei'e} to ask how confident the listener is about something. So, how does this sound as a proposal for an experimental cmavo? {bei'e} MAI Built as a MAI, placed as an evidential. The number added to the front is the decibels of logarithmic Bayesian probability the speaker assigns to the word or phrase that the {bei'e} refers to. 0, {nobei'e}, represents 50% confidence, higher numbers greater confidence, lower numbers lesser confidence, as according to E.T. Jaynes' standard description. (There's probably some easier way to refer to how the decibels compare to standard linear odds, but the best way I know of is simply to point to a table, such as this one:) decibels / Level of belief / Rough Odds / notes -oo / 0% / 1:oo / complete disbelief, unachievable save for paradoxes -6 / 20.0% / 1:4 / -5 / 24.0% / 1:3 / -4 / 28.5% / 2:5 / a reasonable doubt -3 / 33.3% / 1:2 / -2 / 38.7% / 2:3 / probable cause -1 / 44.3% / 4:5 / 0 / 50.0% / 1:1 / neither belief nor disbelief; agnosticism 1 / 55.7% / 5:4 / preponderance of the evidence 2 / 61.3% / 3:2 / 3 / 66.6% / 2:1 / clear and convincing evidence 4 / 71.5% / 5:2 / 5 / 76.0% / 3:1 / beyond a reasonable doubt 6 / 80.0% / 4:1 / 7 / 83.3% / 5:1 / 8 / 86.3% / 6:1 / 9 / 88.8% / 8:1 / 10 / 90.9% / 10:1 / one nine 13 / 95.2% / 20:1 / lone studies with p=3D0.05 20 / 99.0% / 100:1 / two nines, lone studies with p=3D0.01 26 / 99.7% / 400:1 / confirmed studies with p=3D0.05 30 / 99.9% / 1,000:1 / three nines 40 / 99.99% / 10,000:1 / four nines, confirmed studies with p=3D0.01 42 / 99.993% / 16,000:1 / 4 standard deviations 50 / 99.999% / 100,000:1 / five nines 60 / 99.9999% / 1,000,000:1 / six nines 62 / 99.99994% / 1,500,000:1 / 5 standard deviations 87 / 99.9999998% / 500,000,000:1 / 6 standard deviations 116 / 99.9999999997% / 390,000,000,000:1 / 7 standard deviations oo / 100% / oo:1 / complete certainty, unachievable save for tautologies ki'esai, -- DataPacRat lu .iacu'i ma krinu lo du'u .ei mi krici la'e di'u li'u traji lo ka vajni fo lo preti --=20 You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= lojban" group. To post to this group, send email to lojban@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to lojban+unsubscribe@googlegrou= ps.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/lojban= ?hl=3Den.