=A0 I"d probably use fi'o te kanpe, as arpis ment= ioned, myself...

=A0 =A0 --gejyspa

On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 3:53 PM, D <datapacrat@gmail.com> wrote:

On Jan 23, 11:50=A0am, Adam Lopresto <adamlopre...@gmail.com> wrote= :

> On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 10:27 AM, D <datapac...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > the whole idea is to
> > associate a numerical value with the sumti being tagged

> > Hm... {bei'e} comes reasonably close = to containing most of the sounds
> > of "Bayes", and doesn't seem to be in use by any ot= her experimental
> > cmavo.

> I'd suggest making it a MAI; the number go= es in front of it, and the entire
> thing is a free-modifier.

That's so crazy that it just might work.

And since the evidentials themselves are free-modifiers, it should be
simple enough to pretend that {pabei'e} and its cousins, while built as MAIs, should be placed the way evidentials are (ie, at the start of
an evidenced sentence, or after a specific evidenced word). It also
allows for a few entertaining constructions, such as {ma'ubei'e} meaning "more than 50% confidence" or "preponderance of the = evidence",
and {xobei'e} to ask how confident the listener is about something.

So, how does this sound as a proposal for an experimental cmavo?

{bei'e}
MAI
Built as a MAI, placed as an evidential. The number added to the front
is the decibels of logarithmic Bayesian probability the speaker
assigns to the word or phrase that the {bei'e} refers to. 0,
{nobei'e}, represents 50% confidence, higher numbers greater
confidence, lower numbers lesser confidence, as according to E.T.
Jaynes' standard description.

(There's probably some easier way to refer to how the decibels compare<= br> to standard linear odds, but the best way I know of is simply to point
to a table, such as this one:)

decibels / Level of belief / Rough Odds / notes

-oo / 0% / 1:oo / complete disbelief, unachievable save for paradoxes

-6 / 20.0% / 1:4 /
-5 / 24.0% / 1:3 /
-4 / 28.5% / 2:5 / a reasonable doubt
-3 / 33.3% / 1:2 /
-2 / 38.7% / 2:3 / probable cause
-1 / 44.3% / 4:5 /
0 / 50.0% / 1:1 / neither belief nor disbelief; agnosticism
1 / 55.7% / 5:4 / preponderance of the evidence
2 / 61.3% / 3:2 /
3 / 66.6% / 2:1 / clear and convincing evidence
4 / 71.5% / 5:2 /
5 / 76.0% / 3:1 / beyond a reasonable doubt
6 / 80.0% / 4:1 /
7 / 83.3% / 5:1 /
8 / 86.3% / 6:1 /
9 / 88.8% / 8:1 /
10 / 90.9% / 10:1 / one nine

13 / 95.2% / 20:1 / lone studies with p=3D0.05
20 / 99.0% / 100:1 / two nines, lone studies with p=3D0.01
26 / 99.7% / 400:1 / confirmed studies with p=3D0.05
30 / 99.9% / 1,000:1 / three nines
40 / 99.99% / 10,000:1 / four nines, confirmed studies with p=3D0.01
42 / 99.993% / 16,000:1 / 4 standard deviations
50 / 99.999% / 100,000:1 / five nines
60 / 99.9999% / 1,000,000:1 / six nines
62 / 99.99994% / 1,500,000:1 / 5 standard deviations
87 / 99.9999998% / 500,000,000:1 / 6 standard deviations
116 / 99.9999999997% / 390,000,000,000:1 / 7 standard deviations

oo / 100% / oo:1 / complete certainty, unachievable save for
tautologies

ki'esai,
--
DataPacRat
lu .iacu'i ma krinu lo du'u .ei mi krici la'e di'u li'u= traji lo ka
vajni fo lo preti

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