wrote: >> >> > > the whole idea is to >> > > associate a numerical value with the sumti being tagged >> >> > > Hm... {bei'e} comes reasonably close to containing most of the sounds >> > > of "Bayes", and doesn't seem to be in use by any other experimental >> > > cmavo. >> >> > I'd suggest making it a MAI; the number goes in front of it, and the >> entire >> > thing is a free-modifier. >> >> That's so crazy that it just might work. >> >> And since the evidentials themselves are free-modifiers, it should be >> simple enough to pretend that {pabei'e} and its cousins, while built >> as MAIs, should be placed the way evidentials are (ie, at the start of >> an evidenced sentence, or after a specific evidenced word). It also >> allows for a few entertaining constructions, such as {ma'ubei'e} >> meaning "more than 50% confidence" or "preponderance of the evidence", >> and {xobei'e} to ask how confident the listener is about something. >> >> >> So, how does this sound as a proposal for an experimental cmavo? >> >> {bei'e} >> MAI >> Built as a MAI, placed as an evidential. The number added to the front >> is the decibels of logarithmic Bayesian probability the speaker >> assigns to the word or phrase that the {bei'e} refers to. 0, >> {nobei'e}, represents 50% confidence, higher numbers greater >> confidence, lower numbers lesser confidence, as according to E.T. >> Jaynes' standard description. >> >> >> (There's probably some easier way to refer to how the decibels compare >> to standard linear odds, but the best way I know of is simply to point >> to a table, such as this one:) >> >> >> decibels / Level of belief / Rough Odds / notes >> >> -oo / 0% / 1:oo / complete disbelief, unachievable save for paradoxes >> >> -6 / 20.0% / 1:4 / >> -5 / 24.0% / 1:3 / >> -4 / 28.5% / 2:5 / a reasonable doubt >> -3 / 33.3% / 1:2 / >> -2 / 38.7% / 2:3 / probable cause >> -1 / 44.3% / 4:5 / >> 0 / 50.0% / 1:1 / neither belief nor disbelief; agnosticism >> 1 / 55.7% / 5:4 / preponderance of the evidence >> 2 / 61.3% / 3:2 / >> 3 / 66.6% / 2:1 / clear and convincing evidence >> 4 / 71.5% / 5:2 / >> 5 / 76.0% / 3:1 / beyond a reasonable doubt >> 6 / 80.0% / 4:1 / >> 7 / 83.3% / 5:1 / >> 8 / 86.3% / 6:1 / >> 9 / 88.8% / 8:1 / >> 10 / 90.9% / 10:1 / one nine >> >> 13 / 95.2% / 20:1 / lone studies with p=0.05 >> 20 / 99.0% / 100:1 / two nines, lone studies with p=0.01 >> 26 / 99.7% / 400:1 / confirmed studies with p=0.05 >> 30 / 99.9% / 1,000:1 / three nines >> 40 / 99.99% / 10,000:1 / four nines, confirmed studies with p=0.01 >> 42 / 99.993% / 16,000:1 / 4 standard deviations >> 50 / 99.999% / 100,000:1 / five nines >> 60 / 99.9999% / 1,000,000:1 / six nines >> 62 / 99.99994% / 1,500,000:1 / 5 standard deviations >> 87 / 99.9999998% / 500,000,000:1 / 6 standard deviations >> 116 / 99.9999999997% / 390,000,000,000:1 / 7 standard deviations >> >> oo / 100% / oo:1 / complete certainty, unachievable save for >> tautologies >> >> >> ki'esai, >> -- >> DataPacRat >> lu .iacu'i ma krinu lo du'u .ei mi krici la'e di'u li'u traji lo ka >> vajni fo lo preti >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "lojban" group. >> To post to this group, send email to lojban@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> lojban+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/lojban?hl=en. >> >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "lojban" group. > To post to this group, send email to lojban@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > lojban+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/lojban?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "lojban" group. To post to this group, send email to lojban@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to lojban+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/lojban?hl=en. --bcaec501c0421b682c04b7cb8e5b Content-Type: text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable There are already some cmavo that can be used for expressing the certainty = of a claim:

je'u - truly (tautological, e.g. all dogs are dogs)

ju'o - certainly (almost complete certainly)

la'a = - probably

----cu'i maybe (where all of these cmavo suffixed with -cu'i e= ssentially mean the same thing)

la'anai - probably not

<= div>ju'onai - certainly not

je'unai - falsely (statements= which claim falsehoods, e.g. Germany borders China)

Although a system using a numeric certainty value would= be interesting, it probably (see what I did there, ^^) wouldn't be use= d very much. However, if I were to agree with a selma'o, MAI would be i= t. You need a system that produces a free modifier, accepting a number *som= ewhere*. The advantage is of course that lojban numbers can be vague, where= some of these numbers could correspond with the cmavo listed above.

On the other hand, making up experimental cmavo is very= touchy, and I wouldn't recommend it under most circumstances, this one= being one of such instances. The potential usefulness of such an experimen= tal cmavo is definitely outweighed by the simple fact that adding new words= for concepts that are generally expressible using some other method is a b= ad practice. Lojban needs some kind of stability, and adding cmavo left and= right is not the way to do it. Personally, some cmavo are nice to have as = hacks (ze'ei) and some are nice as shortcuts (zo'ei, ZOhOI, and ma&= #39;oi), but depending on to whom I'm talking, I tend to adapt my gramm= ar, especially with new Lojbanists, whom I don't want to indoctrinate i= nto unofficial grammars.

All in all, I advocate using [fi'o te kanpe] as sug= gested (isn't it ironic though that kanpe itself is an experimental ;) = ) when it comes to indicating the certainty of a claim. However, should it = arise to indicate the certainty of some specific component where using a TA= G is not appropriate (these cases are rare; for all sumti, it is possible t= o use [pe TAG] and for all selbri [be TAG]) I would propose using one of th= e modifiers in my above list.

mu'o mi'e la tsani

On 30 January 2012 15:28, Michael Turniansky <mturniansky@gmail.com>= wrote:

=A0 I"d probably use f= i'o te kanpe, as arpis mentioned, myself...

=A0 =A0 --gejyspa

On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 3:53 PM, D <datapacrat@gmail.com> wrote:

On Jan 23, 11:50=A0am, Adam Lopresto <adamlopre...@gmail= .com> wrote:

> On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 10:27 AM, D <datapac...@gmail.com> wrote:

> > the whole idea is to
> > associate a numerical value with the sumti being tagged

> > Hm... {bei'e} comes reasonably close to containing= most of the sounds
> > of "Bayes", and doesn't seem to be in use by any ot= her experimental
> > cmavo.

> I'd suggest making it a MAI; the number goes in front o= f it, and the entire
> thing is a free-modifier.

That's so crazy that it just might work.

And since the evidentials themselves are free-modifiers, it should be
simple enough to pretend that {pabei'e} and its cousins, while built as MAIs, should be placed the way evidentials are (ie, at the start of
an evidenced sentence, or after a specific evidenced word). It also
allows for a few entertaining constructions, such as {ma'ubei'e} meaning "more than 50% confidence" or "preponderance of the = evidence",
and {xobei'e} to ask how confident the listener is about something.

So, how does this sound as a proposal for an experimental cmavo?

{bei'e}
MAI
Built as a MAI, placed as an evidential. The number added to the front
is the decibels of logarithmic Bayesian probability the speaker
assigns to the word or phrase that the {bei'e} refers to. 0,
{nobei'e}, represents 50% confidence, higher numbers greater
confidence, lower numbers lesser confidence, as according to E.T.
Jaynes' standard description.

(There's probably some easier way to refer to how the decibels compare<= br> to standard linear odds, but the best way I know of is simply to point
to a table, such as this one:)

decibels / Level of belief / Rough Odds / notes

-oo / 0% / 1:oo / complete disbelief, unachievable save for paradoxes

-6 / 20.0% / 1:4 /
-5 / 24.0% / 1:3 /
-4 / 28.5% / 2:5 / a reasonable doubt
-3 / 33.3% / 1:2 /
-2 / 38.7% / 2:3 / probable cause
-1 / 44.3% / 4:5 /
0 / 50.0% / 1:1 / neither belief nor disbelief; agnosticism
1 / 55.7% / 5:4 / preponderance of the evidence
2 / 61.3% / 3:2 /
3 / 66.6% / 2:1 / clear and convincing evidence
4 / 71.5% / 5:2 /
5 / 76.0% / 3:1 / beyond a reasonable doubt
6 / 80.0% / 4:1 /
7 / 83.3% / 5:1 /
8 / 86.3% / 6:1 /
9 / 88.8% / 8:1 /
10 / 90.9% / 10:1 / one nine

13 / 95.2% / 20:1 / lone studies with p=3D0.05
20 / 99.0% / 100:1 / two nines, lone studies with p=3D0.01
26 / 99.7% / 400:1 / confirmed studies with p=3D0.05
30 / 99.9% / 1,000:1 / three nines
40 / 99.99% / 10,000:1 / four nines, confirmed studies with p=3D0.01
42 / 99.993% / 16,000:1 / 4 standard deviations
50 / 99.999% / 100,000:1 / five nines
60 / 99.9999% / 1,000,000:1 / six nines
62 / 99.99994% / 1,500,000:1 / 5 standard deviations
87 / 99.9999998% / 500,000,000:1 / 6 standard deviations
116 / 99.9999999997% / 390,000,000,000:1 / 7 standard deviations

oo / 100% / oo:1 / complete certainty, unachievable save for
tautologies

ki'esai,
--
DataPacRat
lu .iacu'i ma krinu lo du'u .ei mi krici la'e di'u li'u= traji lo ka
vajni fo lo preti

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