Date: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 17:49:15 -0700 (PDT)
From: mukti <shunpiker@gmail.com>
To: lojban@googlegroups.com
Message-Id: <5ebfd7de-df4d-4bac-90e9-08d182557c8c@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [lojban] Growth and decline in lojbanistan
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On Sunday, September 14, 2014 5:53:33 AM UTC-3, And Rosta wrote:

*What and where are these historical studies? Was 2003 the historical peak?*

gleki was referring to some informal research I've discussed in IRC. I've 
tried to measure lojbanic activity over time by looking at things like the 
number of messages in the mailing lists and the number of members of LLG.

Mailing list activity seems to have peaked in 2001-2002: The combined 
number of messages in "lojban" and "jboske" topped 7,500 during those 
years. 2003 was the year that LLG reached peak membership (36). Mailing 
list activity declined, but a lot of activity was diverted to the phpBB 
forum supporting the newly formed BPFK.

The years after 2003 saw a steep decline in all of these measurements, 
bottoming out in 2008 (2,100 messages in "lojban" and "lojban-beginners", 
less than 30% of peak activity) and 2009 (17 LLG members, less than 50% of 
peak membership).

Because of the sudden decline -- 2004 mailing list activity was about 50% 
of the previous year -- I've been tempted to read 2003 as the critical 
year, and to look for clues that year as to what happened: What contributed 
to the rapid growth in previous years, and how was that growth reversed so 
quickly?

It looks to me like the adoption of the baseline policy 2002 -- and the 
consequent failure of BPFK to fullfill its expectations despite heroic 
efforts by both chairs -- is where the wheels came off the bus. Which is 
why I would like to bring proposals to the Annual Meeting to determine 
whether specific terms of the baseline policy are still aligned with the 
values and the experience of the community, or whether there's another way 
forward.

I'd be interested to hear from those who were around throughout the 2000s: 
What, from your perspective, happened? And what lessons can be drawn for 
the future?

mi'e la mukti mu'o

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<div dir=3D"ltr">


<p class=3D"p1"><span style=3D"line-height: normal;">On Sunday, September 1=
4, 2014 5:53:33 AM UTC-3, And Rosta wrote:</span><br></p>
<blockquote style=3D"margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding: 0px;"><p cl=
ass=3D"p2"><i>What and where are these historical studies? Was 2003 the his=
torical peak?</i></p></blockquote>
<p class=3D"p2">gleki was referring to some informal research I've discusse=
d in IRC. I've tried to measure lojbanic activity over time by looking at t=
hings like the number of messages in the mailing lists and the number of me=
mbers of LLG.</p>
<p class=3D"p2">Mailing list activity seems to have peaked in 2001-2002: Th=
e combined number of messages in "lojban" and "jboske" topped 7,500 during =
those years. 2003 was the year that LLG reached peak membership (36). Maili=
ng list activity declined, but a lot of activity was diverted to the phpBB =
forum supporting the newly formed BPFK.</p>
<p class=3D"p2">The years after 2003 saw a steep decline in all of these me=
asurements, bottoming out in 2008 (2,100 messages in "lojban" and "lojban-b=
eginners", less than 30% of peak activity) and 2009 (17 LLG members, less t=
han 50% of peak membership).</p>
<p class=3D"p2">Because of the sudden decline -- 2004 mailing list activity=
 was about 50% of the previous year -- I've been tempted to read 2003 as th=
e critical year, and to look for clues that year as to what happened: What =
contributed to the rapid growth in previous years, and how was that growth =
reversed so quickly?</p>
<p class=3D"p2">It looks to me like the adoption of the baseline policy 200=
2 -- and the consequent failure of BPFK to fullfill its expectations despit=
e heroic efforts by both chairs -- is where the wheels came off the bus. Wh=
ich is why I would like to bring proposals to the Annual Meeting to determi=
ne whether specific terms of the baseline policy are still aligned with the=
 values and the experience of the community, or whether there's another way=
 forward.</p>
<p class=3D"p2">I'd be interested to hear from those who were around throug=
hout the 2000s: What, from your perspective, happened? And what lessons can=
 be drawn for the future?</p><p class=3D"p2">mi'e la mukti mu'o</p></div>

<p></p>

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