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Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:32:32 +0100
From: And Rosta <and.rosta@gmail.com>
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Subject: Re: [lojban] Growth and decline in lojbanistan
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mukti, On 16/09/2014 01:49:
> On Sunday, September 14, 2014 5:53:33 AM UTC-3, And Rosta wrote:
>
>     /What and where are these historical studies? Was 2003 the historical=
 peak?/
>
> gleki was referring to some informal research I've discussed in IRC. I've=
 tried to measure lojbanic activity over time by looking at things like the=
 number of messages in the mailing lists and the number of members of LLG.
>
> Mailing list activity seems to have peaked in 2001-2002: The combined num=
ber of messages in "lojban" and "jboske" topped 7,500 during those years. 2=
003 was the year that LLG reached peak membership (36). Mailing list activi=
ty declined, but a lot of activity was diverted to the phpBB forum supporti=
ng the newly formed BPFK.
>
> The years after 2003 saw a steep decline in all of these measurements, bo=
ttoming out in 2008 (2,100 messages in "lojban" and "lojban-beginners", les=
s than 30% of peak activity) and 2009 (17 LLG members, less than 50% of pea=
k membership).
>
> Because of the sudden decline -- 2004 mailing list activity was about 50%=
 of the previous year -- I've been tempted to read 2003 as the critical yea=
r, and to look for clues that year as to what happened: What contributed to=
 the rapid growth in previous years, and how was that growth reversed so qu=
ickly?
>
> It looks to me like the adoption of the baseline policy 2002 -- and the c=
onsequent failure of BPFK to fullfill its expectations despite heroic effor=
ts by both chairs -- is where the wheels came off the bus. Which is why I w=
ould like to bring proposals to the Annual Meeting to determine whether spe=
cific terms of the baseline policy are still aligned with the values and th=
e experience of the community, or whether there's another way forward.
>
> I'd be interested to hear from those who were around throughout the 2000s=
: What, from your perspective, happened? And what lessons can be drawn for =
the future?

This is really interesting; thanks for doing this research. 2003 was precis=
ely when I tuned out and became a merely passive Lojbanist. (My sent-mail f=
olders show an enormous drop in lojban messages from 2002 to 2004 and there=
after.) For me the crucial change was my coming to the view that Lojbab and=
 the rest of the ultraconservative then-majority shouldn't be denied the ri=
ght to have the language they wanted, untormented by the likes of me. Also,=
 the enormous expense of energy by progressives like me -- the vast majorit=
y of those 7500 messages per year and of wiki activity was by progressives =
-- achieved nothing (at the time -- we never imagined that a dozen years la=
ter a new progressive generation would read their way through the archives!=
), precisely because of the legitimate and utterly uncompromising oppositio=
n of the ultraconservatives. Would that there had been a fork at that time,=
 but there wasn't the appetite for it. Once I'd tuned out, I figured there =
was little value to cr
eating an improved version of CLL Lojban, relative to the greater value of =
starting completely from scratch. I'd still very much like to see an improv=
ed version of CLL Lojban, tho.

--And.



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