From nobody@digitalkingdom.org Tue Aug 25 11:35:42 2009 Received: with ECARTIS (v1.0.0; list lojban-list); Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:35:42 -0700 (PDT) Received: from nobody by chain.digitalkingdom.org with local (Exim 4.69) (envelope-from ) id 1Mg0rt-0003qY-O9 for lojban-list-real@lojban.org; Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:35:41 -0700 Received: from mail-vw0-f179.google.com ([209.85.212.179]) by chain.digitalkingdom.org with esmtp (Exim 4.69) (envelope-from ) id 1Mg0rq-0003pg-GM for lojban-list@lojban.org; Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:35:41 -0700 Received: by vws9 with SMTP id 9so2777015vws.25 for ; Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:35:32 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=domainkey-signature:mime-version:received:in-reply-to:references :date:message-id:subject:from:to:content-type :content-transfer-encoding; bh=T2SBEkLmMNjiaugklUCsFGZ88en0ljWjTcRKna8Di6Y=; b=jIUNWM0ekHrekuK363qrgh8/DdLpejqtgfA8nL1bFwbTzHIU3eyrH2CcRS5q5m4Xe6 RMZ9Fn5P7rxBk9Yh4fBgzxGTDg++ZTD54HkBH8Ra2ltMgVRqGTLKA0QC3C1vZgcx6qb5 WA6KvWw8EWZM/KlBjFyLGhu8HdE6HrhXQzscI= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; d=gmail.com; s=gamma; h=mime-version:in-reply-to:references:date:message-id:subject:from:to :content-type:content-transfer-encoding; b=NBhvLfefE66VZFA/GZAYF6iEXc9F4vI0g/2AWNd1bMd2Xyq3oQ+I1p0+Vp6v4DD4fB arXUL8ymi/zyKiTNklH7AtERzsfWzp35fCYaf+cPW+kDF3phXSmEjh0fzSK9CPSeJB67 bQrt87uy0SIej0ASLvQ7IIZruA4MwL8xq3LhE= MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.220.79.66 with SMTP id o2mr8590405vck.72.1251225332223; Tue, 25 Aug 2009 11:35:32 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2009 14:35:32 -0400 Message-ID: <95b2fb130908251135k62d10a8dhfb3ccc4cf3ad3fa0@mail.gmail.com> Subject: [lojban] Re: How many possible gismu? From: "H. Felton" To: lojban-list@lojban.org Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-archive-position: 16035 X-ecartis-version: Ecartis v1.0.0 Sender: lojban-list-bounce@lojban.org Errors-to: lojban-list-bounce@lojban.org X-original-sender: fagricipni@gmail.com Precedence: bulk Reply-to: lojban-list@lojban.org X-list: lojban-list On 8/25/09, MorphemeAddict@wmconnect.com wrote: > In a message dated 8/25/2009 02:53:53 Eastern Daylight Time, > fagricipni@gmail.com writes: > > >> "So even given the rate at which I imagine that new gismu >> might be created; it would be extremely unusual for there >> to be more than 10 per century, usually less -- 10 per >> century would be 100 per millennium, leading to at least >> 7429/100 = 74+ millennia before there is even a possibility >> of running out of gismu." >> > > You're assuming that change in the world is linear. It's not. It > increases more than exponentially. So 10 new gismu per century is a very > (hugely) > conservative estimate. After the singularity occurs (in about 2045), we > might use up all those new gismu in no time at all, since we can't predict > what > the world will be like after that point. > > stevo If we hit that point we could well speculate about communicating by exchanging "core dumps" of the relevant brain states; I could not only communicate to you that I saw something blue, but also _exactly_ what shade of blue it was, by copying that part of my memory and and including it in the "core dump"; I could also communicate to you everything I know about a subject encoding as a "core dump" the brain states of the region(s) where that information is stored. (I don't say neuron states because I don't assume that we will be using a structure that involves neurons at that point.) IF the singularity occurs, there is, as you say, no way to predict anything beyond that point. If the world is to become less comprehensible to us than our culture and lives would be to a Neanderthal, we can't reasonably predict how that will affect things; so there is no way to plan for it. I put those speculations in the same catagory as http://www.xibalba.demon.co.uk/jbr/futurese.html puts: If twenty-third century computer geeks have cybernetic implants to let them offload cognitive processes to specialised hardware, new slang possibilities arise such as inhumanly complex versions of "rot-13ed Pig Latin". or In a "world state" with an anglophone bureaucracy of artificial intelligences, ANSI-standard English could function as a sort of unnaturally preserved lingua franca even if the human native speakers died out. in his speculations about the future of English in the next millennium, and for pretty much the same reason: "because they don't make the language's future form any more predictable". But yes a singularity-type of event could make Lojban as obsolete as pre-hominid's pointing and "grunting"; but I just don't think that I could in any real sense reasonably speculate about how a culture less comprehensible to us than our culture and lives would be to a Neanderthal, would affect Lojban _in particular_. I will grant that the "prediction" of "74+ millennia" is not worth a lot because of the likelyhood of these types of changes in 74 millennia; my speculations about the future of Lojban might be accurate out to a few millennia from now, but I'll not even take that for granted -- imagine the predictions that I would have made about what computers would be like in 2000, if I lived in 1950. To unsubscribe from this list, send mail to lojban-list-request@lojban.org with the subject unsubscribe, or go to http://www.lojban.org/lsg2/, or if you're really stuck, send mail to secretary@lojban.org for help.