Please tell them Happy Birthday. Thunderstorms are expected today from Oklahoma and northern and western Texas eastward to the southern Appalachians. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of wind or hail will be possible...mainly across the Southern Plains and the Tennessee Valley.

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..srn plains... Frontal surge is driving south across the Texas South Plains/southwestern OK in wake of late night mesoscale convective system. Leading edge of wind shift is expected to extend from near adm...southwestward to near abi by 20z with cold front progressing into the northwestern portions of the metroplex by 11/00z. Have adjusted the slight risk south across the metroplex to account for more aggressive frontal position. Thunderstorms should evolve along the wind shift by 21z then quickly be undercut by northerly boundary layer flow. While initial convection should be sfc-based...thunderstorms should quickly become elevated in nature. Hail is the primary severe risk across the slight risk though locally damaging winds may accompany the near-surface based storms early in their convective cycle. ..TN valley... Remnants of late night Southern Plains mesoscale convective system have progressed into southern MO/northern Arkansas where this activity has gradually decreased in intensity. Even so...outflow from convection has produced an isolated severe wind gust as recently as 15z at fsm. Downstream...extensive clouds/precipitation have stabilized much of Kentucky and for this reason have shunted low severe probs south to include a corridor from northestern Arkansas...eastward across Tennessee/northern Gulf states. Deep westerly flow and modest shear through 6km suggest organized multi-cell clusters...and perhaps an embedded supercell...should continue across this region. Weak lapse rates will limit buoyancy across the Tennessee Valley and aside from an isolated wind gust/hail convection should remain mostly sub-severe.