Return-path: Envelope-to: lojban@lojban.org Delivery-date: Wed, 28 Jul 2021 07:03:53 -0700 Received: from mail.premeiercontrol10.club ([91.151.87.109]:42595) by stodi.digitalkingdom.org with esmtp (Exim 4.94) (envelope-from ) id 1m8kA1-00BKMY-1O for lojban@lojban.org; Wed, 28 Jul 2021 07:03:52 -0700 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha1; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=dkim; d=premeiercontrol10.club; h=Date:From:To:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type:List-Unsubscribe:Message-ID; i=homehealth@premeiercontrol10.club; bh=Oymsbr9WAdRyvIglWoOYC2gA5Eo=; b=EuAUr2xVY0b/r8xzSJYeKQ6hb5bHtaXMFqM+/TYSiubRnO/CWXYH2XK1W5DoudiXrcroKs3SuvFR IFHN/tiuMePX7EYkXWY8EmjL1CVtf4B530xn4FsFUcGME5+8kHzcX2UM37Hf+MiDGFZ2eY/Uztm8 6ZECTbDre2W12+LMBb0= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; q=dns; s=dkim; d=premeiercontrol10.club; b=VrP7flks8h3qqjOchS011rTP6UV4ZHc6d6+oPEsWnPfEuYcKe6CixJbBcVmFEFPBXhlBG+Wfo/QP g4XvIfkcLazCD+vq5iF306D35L78xcQATQGYtRtT9Kc3VizDvwLokPkXVSwR9CA72NL6ocllTT6s Jfj7fk7FKICF3L9hWnQ=; Received: by mail.premeiercontrol10.club id h05i8u0001g1 for ; Wed, 28 Jul 2021 10:04:10 -0400 (envelope-from ) Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2021 10:04:10 -0400 From: HomeHealth To: Subject: Throw your cotton swabs away and use this instead. MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_325_703418892.1627480654590" List-Unsubscribe: Message-ID: <0.0.0.36.1D783B9703B9EC2.BA9F7D@mail.premeiercontrol10.club> X-Spam-Score: 3.8 (+++) X-Spam_score: 3.8 X-Spam_score_int: 38 X-Spam_bar: +++ X-Spam-Report: Spam detection software, running on the system "stodi.digitalkingdom.org", has NOT identified this incoming email as spam. The original message has been attached to this so you can view it or label similar future email. If you have any questions, see the administrator of that system for details. Content preview: ** THE CLEAR EAR ENDOSCOPE IS HERE TO HELP CLEAN THOSE EARS! ** Over time, ear wax may build up, causing difficulty in hearing. Every once in a while, it is a good idea to clean out your ears. You may reach for the Q-tips, but this is an unsafe method because you [...] Content analysis details: (3.8 points, 5.0 required) pts rule name description ---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- 0.8 BAYES_50 BODY: Bayes spam probability is 40 to 60% [score: 0.5000] 1.7 URIBL_BLACK Contains an URL listed in the URIBL blacklist [URIs: premeiercontrol10.club] -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record 0.0 SPF_HELO_NONE SPF: HELO does not publish an SPF Record 0.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message 0.0 HTML_FONT_LOW_CONTRAST BODY: HTML font color similar or identical to background 0.0 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars -0.1 DKIM_VALID_EF Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from envelope-from domain -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature 1.5 FROM_FMBLA_NEWDOM From domain was registered in last 7 days 0.0 T_REMOTE_IMAGE Message contains an external image ------=_Part_325_703418892.1627480654590 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ** THE CLEAR EAR ENDOSCOPE IS HERE TO HELP CLEAN THOSE EARS! ** --------------------------------------------------------------- Over time, ear wax may build up, causing difficulty in hearing. Every once in a while, it is a good idea to clean out your ears. You may reach for the Q-tips, but this is an unsafe method because you could end up pushing in the wax to cause more blockage and/or damage. There is a safer solution! Just plug the USB into your computer, phone, or tablet. Once you download the app, you can start checking out your ears through your device's screen. It even has an adjustable LED so you can inspect your ear canal with better visibility. GET YOURS -> http://www.premeiercontrol10.club/4fd4R2395j8sw612zt41K8bw7dbW18ChscFDrfhscFDrEsvZ7AQMomQd5PMS105cMsAv/grouped-haughtiness 7-Packet DataNet IMDN 1207 Se 3rd Avenue Cape Coral FL 33990 2012 To end all communication click here http://www.premeiercontrol10.club/8bd4Q2395c8wH610n418ci7dbq18chscFDrfhscFDrEsvZ7EQMomQd6l1Vv0F5P2sLv/both-Frankfurt ------=_Part_325_703418892.1627480654590 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20
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Is it fair, given that and given the age skew of the disease and of vaccin= ations, that at this point, the worries of long COVID are sort of at a soci= al level, a bigger worry for you, then, than from death itself? 
Well, insofar as we're goin= g to be seeing a lot more long COVID, yes. But, you know, even one death ?<= /span>

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Right, every death is terrible.
And now we're talking about younger people dying, predominantly.= These are all catastrophes, even those who don't die ? prolonged hospitali= zations and all that goes along with that.  So, no, I wouldn't want to= say that I'm not concerned about these other hospitalizations and deaths ?= we will see them. They just won't be like the monster third wave.=20

How much less bad, do you think?
Hopefully, like you alluded to, one-tenth as bad, 90 percent le= ss mortality. That would probably be the best-case scenario. But, still, th= ose are tragedies, and Delta is already flooding the health systems in Arka= nsas, Missouri, Louisiana, just like in the beginning. And there's study af= ter study showing that when a local health system gets overloaded, more dea= ths occur. So in those unvaccinated pockets, the deaths and hospitalization= s will be appreciable. That's part of the replay ? this is the movie we all= never wanted to see again.

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Speaking of those overloading ICUs and ERs, there's been a lot of reporti= ng recently about those places being now full of younger and sicker patient= s in the first wave. How should we think about that? Is it the simple resul= t of a more transmissible variant ? that something that moves through the p= opulation faster will yield a more compressed wave that strains hospitals j= ust because it is moving so fast? Or is there something about Delta that ha= s changed the virulence or age skew?
There's two confounders here that make these stories very di= fficult to interpret. One is, to have something that's hypertransmissible, = you can't look at the data in the same way ? if you look at Russia or Indon= esia, say, you might think, Oh my gosh, the deaths are higher than= ever before in the pandemic, it must be more deadly. But the dea= ths could just be explained by transmissibility.

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And th= en the other confounder is the vaccines. In the U.K., the case fatalit= y rate was previously over 2 percent and now it's 0.12 percent. A lot of th= at magnitude of reduction is because it's younger people. So it's very hard= to say. But the way I put it is, you know, we've got enough problems with = Delta, with its being so remarkably transmissible, and with some immune eva= siveness. We don't need to assign it another feature of being more deadly ?= we just don't need to do that. We don't have proof that it is, for starter= s. There's just some dangling, minimal data out there one way or the other.= But at this point it's really not the principal issue. The principal issue= is it just spreads so darn easily.

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So even with the new research about the high viral loads, suggesting Delta= producing 10,000 times more virus than the previous strains, your intuitio= n is that the virulence is in the same neighborhood as the other variants, = is that right? Not dramatically different? 
That's my sense. You know, it's possible there m= ay be, in the weeks ahead, much better data to sort through this, but it's = a very challenging thing to assert, now, because there are just too many th= ings to try and control for. It's not like we have a randomized trial here.=

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Right. And what about the effect of these outbreaks on vaccine rates? Are = you hopeful that, in a perverse way, they may make people more eager or wil= ling to get vaccinated locally?
Yeah. And finally we've seen some Republican leaders wake up, tho= ugh, you know, months too late.

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It's like there was a memo sent out. 
It sure seems like it. It really all came out in the = last 48 hours. Unfortunately, by the time they did come out and say that st= uff, we already had Delta penetration throughout the country. It takes six = weeks minimum to get some immunity. So for them to be calling for people to= go out and get vaccinated now ? I mean, it's like the FDA giving us a full= approval this coming September. What good is that going to be when the wav= e is over?

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I think= we are seeing small evidence of the stage that people are getting scared i= n Missouri and Arkansas and are lining up to get vaccinated. But the number= s aren't big. We're probably at 500,000 doses a day total, and we were at 4= and a half million a day in March and April.

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Other countries get a lot of credit for doing better than us with vaccine= s. But it doesn't feel to me like it's categorically better. Israel is at 6= 0 percent of the population. The U.K, is at 53 or 54, and we're at 48 or 49= or something like that.
Even so, the gap in fully vaccinated is profound. So if you look at Isra= el at 58.2 percent of the total population now, and the U.S. is 48.7 percen= t ? that's 10 percent of the total population. And in Israel they have a mu= ch younger population, so they can't vaccinate their kids.

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And we'= re just not positioned as well. Back in June, our vaccination program just = collapsed. It's been horrible. Canada is the ultimate comparison. I mean, C= anada is just chugging along. It's going to be the top in the world pretty = soon. So, no, I am disappointed.

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How do you think it all plays out heading into the fall?<= br />Looking ahead to the fall, I'm optimis= tic. Delta will have passed through by then ? it'll pass through by late Au= gust, or September, if it looks like India or the U.K. or Netherlands. We'l= l have a rapid descent, and it'll burn through. We'll still have lots of CO= VID in this country, but it'll be back to where it was before Delta came. I= t will be at a lower level. The only question is, is there something lurkin= g that's worse than Delta? There's no sign of it yet, but there's too much = of this virus circulating to be confident ? too many people in Indonesia an= d sub-Saharan Africa who are getting sick. But I hope not. I'm hoping that = this is as bad as it gets. But if you talk to evolutionary biologists, they= 'll tell you the variants are going to get worse.

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Right, though, just to return to the beginning of the conversation, it's = still a very different-looking pandemic because of the vaccines, right? Thi= s variant is bad, future ones will be, too. There will be outbreaks and new= cases and some amount of cases, including serious illnesses and death. Cer= tain hospitals may be overwhelmed. None of this is pretty, none of this is = happy. But, still, in the big picture, we've made so much progress from where we were six or nin= e months ago.
I don't think it's either-or. = It's both. If you emphasiz= e that we made some progress, that's true, but you could have made a lot more progress with more vaccinates. It's fantastic that we're go= ing to see a whole lot less death, but, you know, haven't we seen enough de= ath already now? Haven= 't we seen enough people s= uffering in the hospi= tal? This nightmare w= e've had ? you know, enough of this! To discount potentially hundreds o= f more deaths a day ? it could be a thousand, it could get that high at pea= k ? that's a lot of people dying. We've never gotten it down much below 300.

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