Received: from nobody by stodi.digitalkingdom.org with local (Exim 4.87) (envelope-from ) id 1ceR6H-0001pU-Ug for lojban-newreal@lojban.org; Thu, 16 Feb 2017 10:48:18 -0800 Received: from 218.166.48.199.static.reverse.as19531.net ([199.48.166.218]:48128 helo=points.youronlinenewrewards.com) by stodi.digitalkingdom.org with esmtp (Exim 4.87) (envelope-from ) id 1ceR6D-0001ok-Ty for lojban@lojban.org; Thu, 16 Feb 2017 10:48:17 -0800 Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2017 11:52:13 -0700 Priority: Normal Content-transfer-encoding: 8bit MIME-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: To: lojban@lojban.org Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 From: KohlsPoints Subject: Your Kohls-$50 Reward-Points are Ready! Please-Claim. Reply-To: KohlsPoints@youronlinenewrewards.com X-Spam-Score: 3.6 (+++) X-Spam_score: 3.6 X-Spam_score_int: 36 X-Spam_bar: +++ X-Spam-Report: Spam detection software, running on the system "stodi.digitalkingdom.org", has NOT identified this incoming email as spam. The original message has been attached to this so you can view it or label similar future email. If you have any questions, see the administrator of that system for details. Content preview: Shopper-Rewards Hello lojban@lojban.org We wanted to let you know that your Kohls-Points (a $50-Value) are going to be-expiring in the next 48-hours if you do not redeem-them! [...] Content analysis details: (3.6 points, 5.0 required) pts rule name description ---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- 0.0 TVD_RCVD_IP Message was received from an IP address 0.0 URIBL_BLOCKED ADMINISTRATOR NOTICE: The query to URIBL was blocked. See http://wiki.apache.org/spamassassin/DnsBlocklists#dnsbl-block for more information. [URIs: youronlinenewrewards.com] 1.4 RCVD_IN_BRBL_LASTEXT RBL: No description available. [199.48.166.218 listed in bb.barracudacentral.org] 0.7 MIME_HTML_ONLY BODY: Message only has text/html MIME parts -1.9 BAYES_00 BODY: Bayes spam probability is 0 to 1% [score: 0.0000] 0.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message 1.9 RAZOR2_CF_RANGE_E8_51_100 Razor2 gives engine 8 confidence level above 50% [cf: 100] 0.5 RAZOR2_CF_RANGE_51_100 Razor2 gives confidence level above 50% [cf: 100] 0.9 RAZOR2_CHECK Listed in Razor2 (http://razor.sf.net/) 0.0 LOTS_OF_MONEY Huge... sums of money Shopper-Rewards
Hello lojban@lojban.org


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Kohl's wants its prices to be easy on shoppers and tough on competition. The clothing retailer operates about 1,160 department stores in 49 states, with nearly half of stores in the Midwest and West. Competing with discount and mid-level department stores, it sells moderately priced name-brand and private-label apparel, shoes, accessories, and housewares through centrally located cash registers designed to speed checkout and keep staff costs down. Merchandising relationships allow Kohl's to carry top brands (NIKE, Levi's, OshKosh B'Gosh) not always available to discounters; it's able to sell them for lower prices by controlling costs. A typical store spans 88,000 sq. ft., and serves markets with 150,000 to 200,000 people. It has certainly been a tough year for many retailers and apparel companies. After the stock market whipped these companies around, many, like Kohl's (NYSE:KSS), are now what can be considered "high yielders".

At almost a 5% yield, Kohl's now yields more then some REITS and MLPS for crying out loud. The question for an potential investor is if this yield is a red flag or a green buying signal. Let's look at long term results and then short term. Long Term Results Kohl's had a good liftoff after the Great Recession as its sales did not miss a beat during 2008 or 2009. The company was slowly expanding its store pace and driving same stores sales growth. And then by 2011 net income & EPS had peaked at 1.1b. Revenue appears to have peaked in 2012 and plateaued since. Early 2016 saw 18 Kohl's stores close as Q4 results were disappointing and profit dropped by 20%. In early January Kohl's announced same store sales for November and December 2.1 percent. Total sales were down 2.7 percent.

Earnings guidance fell 20 cents. Other retailers have followed suit with virtually all department stores announcing awful sales. J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) is rumoured to be closing 30 stores, and Macy's (NYSE:M) and Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) are closing hundreds. I have not yet seen an announcement from Kohl's about store closures this year but I think a few are inevitable and may come closer to their earnings announcement. The problem I see for most department stores now is a lack of a plan. Macy's and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) constantly blame the weather and it appears like most are still struggling to compete both online and in the discount format. Kohl's only has 3 of their Off/Aisle TJ Maxx (NYSE:TJX)-like stores and has pared back their ambitions to open more. So what is the plan? Do they just continue trying to do well every holiday season, hoping that people come into the store and their selection is what people want?

Sure, all department stores are now giving lip service to omni-channel sales and pick-up in-store but all their e-commerce efforts are essentially irrelevant as a percentage of total sales the same way the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) watch doesn't matter for Apple. I think the most logical end game for many of these department stores is that in the next few years private equity will buy them out of the bargain bin and try and extract as much value they can from the ones that have valuable real estate. This appears to be a possibility for Macy's already. Buybacks and dividends Kohl's currently pays $2.00 per share, or $350 million per year in dividends. The company's current market cap is $7.2b. 2016 full year eps is going to be between 2.92 and 2.97. Kohl's dividend is safe, but the company now has a 67% payout ratio. A couple more years of falling sales and increased costs could see this number rise above 80% and then a dividend cut becomes a real possibility. Kohl's spent 1 billion on buybacks in 2015 and 677 million in 2014. This chart should tell you whether they got those shares at a good price or not. Liquidity and Survivability

The title of this article is a bit rhetorical because Kohl's can certainly make it to 2020. They are not yet experiencing the death spiral that Sears is but they do not also have as valuable real estate, brands, and other assets they might spin off to stay afloat.

They do own 82% of their real estate though and lease the rest. The question is: what to put in a vacant Kohl's? Where I live they put a local board of elections in one. Maybe Aldi would fit? Debt wise the company has done a good job of rolling over their debt as it comes due. They only have one maturity left before 2020 and that is in 2017. This will likely be paid off with a new long term bond.