Return-path: Envelope-to: lojban-newreal@lojban.org Delivery-date: Tue, 27 Jul 2021 16:01:10 -0700 Received: from nobody by stodi.digitalkingdom.org with local (Exim 4.94) (envelope-from ) id 1m8W4U-008WeE-RQ for lojban-newreal@lojban.org; Tue, 27 Jul 2021 16:01:10 -0700 Received: from mail.premeiercontrol9.club ([91.151.87.108]:36614) by stodi.digitalkingdom.org with esmtp (Exim 4.94) (envelope-from ) id 1m8W4S-008WdB-Fp for lojban@lojban.org; Tue, 27 Jul 2021 16:01:10 -0700 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha1; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=dkim; d=premeiercontrol9.club; h=Date:From:To:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type:List-Unsubscribe:Message-ID; i=delbert.mckinney@premeiercontrol9.club; bh=TmIixrOR1bzHMT78CVDWjBPxOUc=; b=VuDa1Rv+c7BggyR7molcLJtTSZtX8ttZfst6wY32wyoIbp+9PAJWoC21m5hmNn9xdYOkHSQ2lman /1LXIVHyL4vmZeJkLhyGqMPqa8F2yMCVmFA0Or7NCdH9C2wb/nFMa8jlhgQBPrnJQt90aqu6tquW /xdgZNms4syJqE0v3r4= DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; c=nofws; q=dns; s=dkim; d=premeiercontrol9.club; b=Ng218+cOiFSPXZfrdFVZLHD80Oum0s3FSvUTI3bUjfzYJIzTKbeLudmjmX37Ujw6ygSck2VD2zH1 5fy31Fmn1UwBmwvAdmZa6v8M2tx3DQfOIhdmo9GinYRYk92eahBu+ufbMt+yhlT4pj+SX5Z9apc0 Kl4fslmKFDGLjdFAAHI=; Received: by mail.premeiercontrol9.club id h028fo0001gt for ; Tue, 27 Jul 2021 18:57:25 -0400 (envelope-from ) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2021 18:57:25 -0400 From: "Delbert Mckinney" To: Subject: This Tape Measurer Does It All, Offers 3 In 1 Digital Technology MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_247_1295945354.1627425981319" List-Unsubscribe: Message-ID: <0.0.0.26.1D7833AC459262A.91A99C@mail.premeiercontrol9.club> X-Spam-Score: 0.6 (/) X-Spam_score: 0.6 X-Spam_score_int: 6 X-Spam_bar: / X-Spam-Report: Spam detection software, running on the system "stodi.digitalkingdom.org", has NOT identified this incoming email as spam. The original message has been attached to this so you can view it or label similar future email. If you have any questions, see the administrator of that system for details. Content preview: ** ToolFront Tape Measure ** A new way to measure. Tired of unraveling that old tape measure? Are the numbers fading and getting hard to read? With the ToolFront Tape Measure, you won't have to worry about that! Content analysis details: (0.6 points, 5.0 required) pts rule name description ---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- 0.0 URIBL_BLOCKED ADMINISTRATOR NOTICE: The query to URIBL was blocked. See http://wiki.apache.org/spamassassin/DnsBlocklists#dnsbl-block for more information. [URIs: premeiercontrol9.club] 0.8 BAYES_50 BODY: Bayes spam probability is 40 to 60% [score: 0.5000] -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record 0.0 SPF_HELO_NONE SPF: HELO does not publish an SPF Record 0.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message 0.0 HTML_FONT_LOW_CONTRAST BODY: HTML font color similar or identical to background 0.0 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars -0.1 DKIM_VALID_EF Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from envelope-from domain -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from author's domain 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, not necessarily valid -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature 0.0 T_REMOTE_IMAGE Message contains an external image ------=_Part_247_1295945354.1627425981319 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit ** ToolFront Tape Measure ** --------------------------- A new way to measure. Tired of unraveling that old tape measure? Are the numbers fading and getting hard to read? With the ToolFront Tape Measure, you won't have to worry about that! This tape measure uses a laser guide to record large distances. It also comes with a flexible cord and wheel, so you can measure small and/or round items. The reading will show on a large LED display, giving you an easy-to-read accurate measurement. The ToolFront Tape Measure is the perfect gift for remodelers, woodworkers, or any one who loves to work with their hands! Take Up To 50% Off -> http://www.premeiercontrol9.club/11f6w2C3g95E8Ch611D4179mt7daT18dhscFDrfhscFDrEsvZ7UQPomQ97GNIn10X6NB@sXv/relabels-dyeing K Street Digital Pioneering 9490 Virginia Center Blvd Unit 330 Vienna VA 22181 4802 Change your preferences by clicking here. ------=_Part_247_1295945354.1627425981319 Content-Type: text/html; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20 =20
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A dif= ferent team of modelers, called the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, working= with the CDC, unveiled a starker set of projections Wednesday. In their most likely scenari= o, NPR reports, t= he modelers suggested a mid-October Delta peak of 60,000 new daily cases ac= ross the country and 850 daily deaths ? about one-quarter as bad as the wor= st previous wave last winter. In their worst-case scenario, the Delta wave = would peak at 250,000 new daily cases and 4,000 deaths. Both projections fo= r deaths seem quite implausible to me, given that each would represent an e= ven higher case-fatality rate than we saw in January, when the country's ne= w daily case rate peaked at 251,000 and the rolling seven-day death total r= eached just 3,400. Hardly anybody in the entire country was vaccinated then= ; today, we're just below 50 percent of the total population and 90 percent= of the senior population, where mortality risk is so concentrated.<= /p>=20

In th= e U.K. today, there are about 47,000 new cases (about one-fifth the group's= projection for an American Delta peak), and while it is the case that deat= h totals in the coming weeks will likely grow, at the moment the country's = seven-day rolling death total is, according to Our World in Data, just 55. = Even extrapolating that trajectory out for a few additional weeks, it would= imply, in the American context, that a peak of 60,000 new daily cases woul= d produce something on the order of 100 daily deaths, not 850, and a peak o= f 250,000 new daily cases would imply something like 500, not 4,000. The gr= oup also assumes that the Delta wave would not just continue but continuing=  growing until October, several months from now; the ind= ication of caseload declines from the U.K. and elsewhere suggest that may n= ot be the case ? that the wave may indeed peak and begin to subside well be= fore. (On top of which, mid-October is a strange time for a projected peak,= given that, last year, it was around then that seasonal fall effects began= to kick in, accelerating spread.)

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Of cou= rse, 500 deaths is still 500 deaths ? and it is worth keeping in mind that = these are figures that would've horrified us 18 months ago, as comparativel= y small as that number of tragic and preventable deaths now seems, given th= e brutality of past waves. On Thursday, I spoke about all this with Eric To= pol, the head of Scipps and a sort of one-man clearinghouse for new coronav= irus data the world over. He was somewhat less sanguine about the next few = months.

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I wondered if it might be useful to start by laying out how I'm processi= ng what seem to be two contrasting trends. The first is that, according to = the White House, something like 90 percent of American seniors are fully va= ccinated, and since we know an awful lot of middle-aged people are too, and= know the vaccines are effective, we can conclude that we have dramatically= reduced the country's overall mortality risk ? probably by 90 percent, may= be 95 percent. There are lots of places with plenty of unvaccinated people,= and overall the rates aren't what we'd like them to be, but even in those = places, vaccinations have skewed toward the most vulnerable ? at least spea= king relatively. 

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Nevertheless, speaking in absolute terms, there are still a lot of vulne= rable people, and given a worst-case scenario of pervasive spread through t= he vulnerable population, you could see a lot of serious illness and death.= It would be much, much less than would've been the case if that worst-case scenario of total spread = had taken place a year ago, but the total figures could still be pretty= grim. And, unfortunately, Delta may just represent that worst-case scenari= o. What am I missing?
= I think overall you've got it pegged, but I would modulate some of that. Ri= ght now, about 85 percent infections are with Delta. We're not at 99, but we will be probably in a we= ek. And then we'll be there for several weeks. So we're going to have a= Delta wave that comes to go through just like it did India. But eventually= , as the Delta wave proceeds, it will start to come down ? it's starting to= come down, perhaps, in the U.K. and Netherlands, though it hasn't started = to come down yet in Israel and other places. But it doesn't get to everybody. It didn't get to everyb= ody in India ? it was horrific, but there's plenty of people still that did= n't get touched there by any of the 607 lineages, which include Delta.<= /span>

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Why is that? Is it because of changes in social behavior in response to = rapid spread? Something particular about this variant? A reflection of the = dispersion of unvaccinated through the country? Or some other factor, some combination, some dynamic = we don't truly understand?
There are man= y reasons why Delta will die out before getting to everyone vulnerable ? yo= u have listed some like change in behavior. It's a combination of factors. = But the best evidence is from India and now Russia, without vaccines at any appreciable percent ? eve= n there, however efficient the virus is, it's not capable of reaching e= veryone. Just as the 1918 flu pandemic didn't get to everyone. These pandem= ic pathogens burn through = a population, but they invariably leave many behind who are vulnerable, not= because they had prior COVID or some genomic host insulation. I believ= e the U.K. is clearly heading down now, which is a quite important prognost= icator for the U.S. pattern in the weeks ahead. How many weeks and what will be the peak cases (and = other outcomes) is the only unknown in my mind.

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