On Jan 23, 11:50 am, Adam Lopresto <adamlopre...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mon, Jan 23, 2012 at 10:27 AM, D <datapac...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > the whole idea is to
> > associate a numerical value with the sumti being tagged
> > Hm... {bei'e} comes reasonably close to containing most of the sounds
> > of "Bayes", and doesn't seem to be in use by any other experimental
> > cmavo.
> I'd suggest making it a MAI; the number goes in front of it, and the entireThat's so crazy that it just might work.
> thing is a free-modifier.
And since the evidentials themselves are free-modifiers, it should be
simple enough to pretend that {pabei'e} and its cousins, while built
as MAIs, should be placed the way evidentials are (ie, at the start of
an evidenced sentence, or after a specific evidenced word). It also
allows for a few entertaining constructions, such as {ma'ubei'e}
meaning "more than 50% confidence" or "preponderance of the evidence",
and {xobei'e} to ask how confident the listener is about something.
So, how does this sound as a proposal for an experimental cmavo?
{bei'e}
MAI
Built as a MAI, placed as an evidential. The number added to the front
is the decibels of logarithmic Bayesian probability the speaker
assigns to the word or phrase that the {bei'e} refers to. 0,
{nobei'e}, represents 50% confidence, higher numbers greater
confidence, lower numbers lesser confidence, as according to E.T.
Jaynes' standard description.
(There's probably some easier way to refer to how the decibels compare
to standard linear odds, but the best way I know of is simply to point
to a table, such as this one:)
decibels / Level of belief / Rough Odds / notes
-oo / 0% / 1:oo / complete disbelief, unachievable save for paradoxes
-6 / 20.0% / 1:4 /
-5 / 24.0% / 1:3 /
-4 / 28.5% / 2:5 / a reasonable doubt
-3 / 33.3% / 1:2 /
-2 / 38.7% / 2:3 / probable cause
-1 / 44.3% / 4:5 /
0 / 50.0% / 1:1 / neither belief nor disbelief; agnosticism
1 / 55.7% / 5:4 / preponderance of the evidence
2 / 61.3% / 3:2 /
3 / 66.6% / 2:1 / clear and convincing evidence
4 / 71.5% / 5:2 /
5 / 76.0% / 3:1 / beyond a reasonable doubt
6 / 80.0% / 4:1 /
7 / 83.3% / 5:1 /
8 / 86.3% / 6:1 /
9 / 88.8% / 8:1 /
10 / 90.9% / 10:1 / one nine
13 / 95.2% / 20:1 / lone studies with p=0.05
20 / 99.0% / 100:1 / two nines, lone studies with p=0.01
26 / 99.7% / 400:1 / confirmed studies with p=0.05
30 / 99.9% / 1,000:1 / three nines
40 / 99.99% / 10,000:1 / four nines, confirmed studies with p=0.01
42 / 99.993% / 16,000:1 / 4 standard deviations
50 / 99.999% / 100,000:1 / five nines
60 / 99.9999% / 1,000,000:1 / six nines
62 / 99.99994% / 1,500,000:1 / 5 standard deviations
87 / 99.9999998% / 500,000,000:1 / 6 standard deviations
116 / 99.9999999997% / 390,000,000,000:1 / 7 standard deviations
oo / 100% / oo:1 / complete certainty, unachievable save for
tautologies
ki'esai,
--
DataPacRat
lu .iacu'i ma krinu lo du'u .ei mi krici la'e di'u li'u traji lo ka
vajni fo lo preti
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