[lojban-beginners] Re: "With /n/ confidence..."

["Wim Coenen" <wcoenen@gmail.com>]

2007/10/18, Jorge Llambías <jjllambias@gmail.com>:
> On 10/18/07, Marjorie Scherf <mls1@rice.edu> wrote:
> >
> > Is probability the same as certainty?
>
> Usually not. I can be 100% certain that the probablility
> of a coin coming up heads is 50%, for example.
>
> Certainty is about knowledge, it is subjective. Probability
> can be objective. Maybe nobody knows what the probability
> of something happening is, but we can do some experiments
> and find out. The probability of the event doesn't change as
> we perform the experiments, but our certainty about whether
> it will happen or not might change depending on how accurately
> we are able to determine its probability.

If we are talking about Baysian probability, then there is no
distinction between certainty and probability. The distinction only
exists in the "frequency probability" interpretation of probability.
At least I think so. I'm not certain ;)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baysian is an interesting read.

mu'o mi'e .uim